Résumé
Adding to the already polarizing 2020 general election was the COVID-19 pandemic. One way in which this pandemic greatly affected the election was through an increased participation in by-mail, or mail-in, ballots. The state of North Carolina experienced a 316 percent increase in by-mail votes between 2016 and 2020, when approximately 977,186 votes were cast by mail. It is no surprise that this increase was due to the COVID-19 pandemic;however, these by-mail voting patterns are spatial in nature and vary across the state. This research measures to what degree COVID-19 rates affected by-mail voting rates. Using geographic information systems data developed from robust tabular files provided by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, by-mail votes were calculated and mapped at ZIP code scale and compared to COVID-19 rates measured at different dates. By-mail rates taken from final absentee tallies for the highest and lowest COVID-19 ZIP codes saw no significant differences across multiple dates (30 September 2020 and 31 October 2020) when COVID-19 data were collected. COVID-19 hot spots (high COVID-19 rates surrounded by other high COVID-19 rates) were extracted using geostatistical techniques and compared to COVID-19 cold spots (low COVID-19 rates surrounded by other low COVID-19 rates). It was found the lowest by-mail rates actually occurred in these COVID-19 hot spots across both dates, as well a metric that expressed percentage change in COVID-19 rates in the month before the 2020 election.Alternate :COVID-19使得已经两极分化的2020年美国大选, 变得更加雪上加霜。COVID-19影响选举的一种方式是邮寄选票的增加。2016年至2020年, 北卡罗来纳州的邮寄选票增加了316%, 共约977,186张。毫无疑问, COVID-19导致了邮寄选票的增加。然而, 邮寄选票在本质上是空间性的, 并且在北卡罗来纳州的各个地方具有差异性。本研究计算了COVID-19发病率对邮寄选票比例的影响程度。利用北卡罗来纳州选举委员会提供的准确的表格文件, 本文制作了地理信息系统数据, 在邮政编码尺度上对邮寄选票进行计算和制图, 并将这些邮寄选票与不同时间的COVID-19发病率进行了比较。在拥有最高和最低COVID-19发病率的邮政编码和不同时间（2020年9月30日和2020年10月31日）, 从缺失人数统计中得到的邮寄选票比例没有显著差异。利用地学统计方法提取COVID-19热点（COVID-19高发病率在空间上被其它高发病率所包围）, 并与COVID-19冷点（COVID-19低发病率在空间上被其它低发病率所包围）进行比较。结果发现, 在这两个时间内, 最低邮寄选票比例出现在COVID-19热点地区。本文还制定了一个指标, 可以表示2020年大选前一个月的COVID-19发病率百分比的变化。